The mainstream media has finally capitulated on Joe Biden. Leading the way is the NY Times, one of the scummiest media outlets in a sea of media scum:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/09/us/politics/biden-age-democrats.html
And again:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/11/us/politics/biden-approval-polling-2024.html
You can see the metaphoric knife slide into Biden’s ribs with these articles. Once the NY Times starts an attack, you can be sure that other MSM outlets will soon follow.
So absent a surprise win for Democrats in the midterms, Joe Biden is likely not going to be the next candidate for President from the Democrats. I think that should be obvious to even the most casual observer of American politics.
And yet Joe Biden - despite his abysmal polls and performance - thinks otherwise per Fox News:
Here are the salient quotes:
"Mr. President, what’s your message to Democrats who don’t want you to run again?" asked the reporter.
"Read the polls, Jack, you guys are all the same…That poll showed that 92% of Democrats, if I ran, would vote for me” replied Biden.
Of course, Biden failed to explain that 92% of Democrats would vote for Biden if the Republicans nominated Trump. And of course, Republicans have not nominated anyone since its July 2022.
Meanwhile, inflation came in screaming at 9.2% today:
Consumer prices jumped 9.1% in June, the biggest annual increase in almost 41 years, reinforcing expectations for another jumbo rate rise by the Federal Reserve later this month. The central bank lifted its key rate by 0.75 percentage points last month in an intensifying effort to stamp out inflation fueled by rising energy costs and supply-chain snags triggered by the pandemic. The Labor Department's consumer price index also registered its biggest monthly change — 1.3% — since 2005.
Yes, those numbers look backwards and yes, the price of oil has come down recently. Nonetheless, does anyone honestly think interest rates are going down before the midterms? The Fed says rates going higher; the only question is how high they will go before they create real economic damage and layoffs.
What happens if the pending recession ends up causing even more layoffs? What happens if the War in Ukraine becomes nuclear?
What happens if a criminal investigation against Hunter Biden gets legs when (and if) Republicans take control of Congress?
If just one of these worse-case scenarios play out, will we see the Democrats clamoring for Joe Biden to step down before his term is over?
I don’t know the answers to these questions, but if Joe Biden is at <40% approval ratings today and the news continues to get worse, we will have a sitting President with sub 25% approval ratings.
Even Harry Truman - a man who dropped two nuclear bombs on a foreign country - did not have sub 25% approval ratings!
My sense is that behind closed doors, the Biden Administration is panicking and yet has no clue how to stop Biden’s free fall.
Why?
#1. Every time the guy opens his mouth, something egregious or just plain stupid comes out. Here are a few recent examples from the past week alone:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/watch-joe-biden-s-holocaust-gaffe
And:
No amount of spin or explaining away can erase these soundbites. Biden is clearly declining mentally and the decline will just get worse as the office begins to weigh on him in a material way.
#2. Inflation (see above) is out of their hands because they have no control over the Federal Reserve and they’ve already passed their egregious spending packages. Inflation is also tied to the war in Ukraine which the US appears to have little control over as it progresses.
#3. Interest rates are going higher no matter what Biden says or does. Lots of companies - especially tech companies whose stocks are sensitive to higher rates - see this grim future and are starting to lay workers off before the midterms. Many companies also see a pending recession which could prompt them to panic and fire workers ahead of poor earnings.
#4. The War in Ukraine is going horribly for the Ukrainians despite US support. The price of oil and gas will likely go higher in the winter if the war continues this way or gets worse.
#5. COVID may return and this could lead to forced lockdowns which we all know are extremely unpopular and will - going forward - likely occur in blue cities and blue states only. This will prompt extreme unpopularity especially if it forces school closures or more remote learning for kids with parents back to work full time. These are the usually reliable blue state voters Biden needs to remain the nominee.
You could argue that every point I’ve provided is a dire prediction and filled with doom and gloom assumptions about the future.
Inflation could be hitting its peak this summer and it could absolutely begin to abate and force the Fed to ease their rate hikes. The economy could have a “soft landing” and rate hikes may become less aggressive. We could even have a scenario where the US hits a nasty recession and the Fed decides to panic and lower rates (again) to stem the economy’s bleeding right before the midterms (note: the stock market thinks this will happen and will likely rally if this occurs).
COVID could become another “non issue” especially if cases and fatalities do not increase this summer despite all the states easing their mask mandates and COVID protocols. You could argue the virus is already in a weakened state and no longer presents an existential threat to the elderly and out of shape. Schools could start this fall without COVID protocols and voters will have one less thing to worry about with their kids.
The War in Ukraine could end with a relatively peaceful settlement over the south and eastern portions of the country. The EU could get so desperate for natural gas from Russia this fall and winter that they force the USA to (in turn) force Ukraine to accept a settlement with Russia. I have no idea what the odds of a settlement are, but I do not discount the possibility that Europe (especially Germany) becomes desperate to avoid a recession linked to Russia’s energy embargo on Europe which is only going to get worse in the winter.
Democrats could come to their senses and drop all their CRT and radical, progressive culture wars although I find the odds of this happening to be next to zero. We are dealing with a party of progressive zealots at this point and they’ve found an empty shell (Biden) willing to alienate millions of voters with their ideological culture wars and policies.
I have no idea what will happen, but I do know that Biden’s approval could get even worse than it already is today. And today, it’s pretty horrible and suggestive of a new presidential candidate after Biden continues his horrible tenure in office.